Insights
At a glance
Observed 90-day opportunity rate, all decisions
38.9% observed (58 of 149 eligible decisions; n = 149)
Cohort total 289 decisions at ledger cutoff 1597. Observed on synthetic data: descriptive, not causal, and not a conversion probability. How to read it, every exclusion and every denominator follow below.
How to read this page
- The data is synthetic: every account, vendor-like event, decision and outcome on this site is simulated.
- Every rate is an observed rate over the decisions recorded by the ledger cutoff this page reads. The comparisons are descriptive, not causal: no cause and no effect is claimed.
- Counterfactual replay results are never recorded and are in no number on this page; there is no simulation view.
- The signals and the workflow comparison are demonstration checks named by the synthetic dataset's manifest, not findings. This page shows observed numbers only and states no expectation about them.
Population
The population is every account-prioritization decision recorded by the cutoff for the accounts listed on this site. Every count below comes from the effective outcome versions and their effective attribution results at that cutoff, never from raw row counts.
- Ledger cutoff
- 1597
- Decisions in population
- 289
- Reconstructed exactly
- 289
- Reconstruction failures
- 0
- Outcome window
- 90 days
- Comparison workflow cohort
v4.1
Observed 90-day opportunity rate, all decisions
- Observed rate
- 38.9% observed (58 of 149 eligible decisions; n = 149)
- Cohort total
- 289
- Eligible decisions
- 149
- Positive decisions
- 58
- Excluded: other evaluation period only
- 24
- Excluded: reconstruction failed
- 0
- Excluded: not evaluated
- 116
A decision counts as positive when it holds at least one recorded positive observation in a completed 90-day evaluation window, counted once per decision. The rate is not a conversion probability. The three exclusion counts are reasons that may overlap, so they do not add up to the cohort total.
Coverage
Effective outcome observations
Observations that are unresolved or awaiting attribution are counted here and enter no decision-level count or rate on this page. An open observation is never a completed outcome, whatever its recorded values. A closed observation with an unknown opportunity value is never a negative.
- awaiting attribution
- 2
- unresolved
- 24
- direct
- 207
- inferred (heuristic)
- 26
- open window
- 54
- closed known
- 195
- closed unknown
- 10
- Other evaluation period
- 36
- Qualifying 90-day observations
- 149
- Total effective observations
- 259
Decisions by observation standing
- evaluated
- 173
- unknown
- 9
- open
- 51
- unattributed
- 56
- Total
- 289
- Eligible for the 90-day rate
- 149
Decisions counted as evaluated and decisions eligible for the rate differ by design: an evaluated decision may hold only observations of another evaluation period, or may have failed reconstruction. A decision with no attributed observation is unattributed, including a decision with no action recorded for this decision.
Reconstruction failures
No decision failed exact reconstruction at this cutoff.
Signals (demonstration checks)
| Signal | Predicate | Comparison signal present (known true) | known false | unavailable | absent | not applicable | reconstruction failed | Input available | Input consumed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
recently_funded |
funding_event observed within 90 days before the decision boundary |
97 | 121 | 29 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 218 |
verified_integration_pressure_high |
verified_integration_pressure equals "HIGH" |
77 | 167 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 57 |
Signal recently_funded
| Logic version | Artifact hash | Rule | Decisions | Matched |
|---|---|---|---|---|
v3.2 |
db3a8bdebf2befe286ab49a2381dfe6fb931ac6f848923d35e0e732adcc82db0 |
funding_event observed within 90 days before the decision boundary |
222 | 91 |
v5.1 |
b5a6f33dd592fe804d9b59e081639c6527a9c4ca2727cb6f850c6888b3ea7a3b |
funding_event observed within 90 days before the decision boundary |
67 | 6 |
| Arm | Cohort total | Eligible | Positives | Observed rate | Excluded: other period only | Excluded: reconstruction failed | Excluded: not evaluated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| known true | 97 | 58 | 23 | 39.7% observed (23 of 58 eligible decisions; n = 58) | 9 | 0 | 30 |
| known false | 121 | 55 | 21 | 38.2% observed (21 of 55 eligible decisions; n = 55) | 8 | 0 | 58 |
- Difference
- +1.5 percentage points
Signal verified_integration_pressure_high
| Logic version | Artifact hash | Rule | Decisions | Matched |
|---|---|---|---|---|
v3.2 |
db3a8bdebf2befe286ab49a2381dfe6fb931ac6f848923d35e0e732adcc82db0 |
not applicable | 222 | 0 |
v5.1 |
b5a6f33dd592fe804d9b59e081639c6527a9c4ca2727cb6f850c6888b3ea7a3b |
verified_integration_pressure equals 'LOW' |
67 | 16 |
| Arm | Cohort total | Eligible | Positives | Observed rate | Excluded: other period only | Excluded: reconstruction failed | Excluded: not evaluated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| known true | 77 | 41 | 25 | 61.0% observed (25 of 41 eligible decisions; n = 41) | 4 | 0 | 32 |
| known false | 167 | 88 | 25 | 28.4% observed (25 of 88 eligible decisions; n = 88) | 16 | 0 | 63 |
- Difference
- +32.6 percentage points
Workflow versions
| Workflow version | Decisions | evaluated | unknown | open | unattributed | Eligible | Positives | Observed rate | Excluded: other period only | Excluded: reconstruction failed | Excluded: not evaluated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
v4.1 |
158 | 102 | 5 | 25 | 26 | 91 | 43 | 47.3% observed (43 of 91 eligible decisions; n = 91) | 11 | 0 | 56 |
v4.2 |
131 | 71 | 4 | 26 | 30 | 58 | 15 | 25.9% observed (15 of 58 eligible decisions; n = 58) | 13 | 0 | 60 |
Workflow comparison
- Compared
v4.2- Against
v4.1- Observed rate,
v4.2 - 25.9% observed (15 of 58 eligible decisions; n = 58)
- Observed rate,
v4.1 - 47.3% observed (43 of 91 eligible decisions; n = 91)
- Difference
- -21.4 percentage points
Each arm's cohort total, eligible count, positives and exclusion counts are in the workflow table row of that version.